The Future(s) of the Specialty Chemicals Industry

As part of the focus topic "The Future(s) of the Specialty Chemicals Industry", Foresight developed forward-looking scenarios exploring how the industry could evolve by 2040.

What will shape the future of the specialty chemicals industry? What might plausible scenarios in our industry look like? Will humans soon work side-by-side with robots and artificial intelligence? Will a global circular economy become reality? How might global consumption patterns change? And which raw materials will we use in the future? – The Foresight team addressed these and many other questions in the 2019/2020 focus topic.

Using the explorative scenario method, Foresight develops coherent and plausible visions of possible futures. These scenarios help Evonik to identify emerging growth fields and to test the robustness of its strategic direction under different future conditions.

The development of the scenarios follows a rigorous, three-step process. The team starts by identifying the key factors that are likely to significantly influence the future. For this project, this step was based on more than 100 interviews with internal and external experts from chemistry, business, and politics, complemented by analyses of international futurology studies and a series of workshops. Next, potential developments of these key factors are systematically analyzed and combined into logically consisten frameworks. Finally, these combinations are translated into a set of distinct, plausible future scenarios of different pathways based on a plethora of possible developments.

These scenarios provide a robust foundation for strategic decision-making, helping nativate uncertainty, anticipate change, and proactively shape the future of the specialty chemicals industry

Scenario Presentation

More in our ELEMENTS innovation magazine article "The world in 2040 - scenarios for the future" (06/2019)

DECEPTIVE CALM

The world is changing, but rather slowly and gradually. There are no leaps – neither geopolitical, nor technological, nor ecological. Initially, this means stability, strong economic growth and business-as-usual. But this also means that the search for solutions to major global problems is being postponed ever further. After all, the negative consequences are all the more serious.

SUSTAINABILITY PARADIGM

Sustainability is becoming the guiding economic principle and driver for innovation. This happens without strong regulatory pressure, as sustainability is becoming economically attractive and technologically possible. Digital technologies, breakthroughs in biotechnology and cheap electricity from renewable sources make it possible to transform the economy into a circular bio-economy.

DIGITAL CHAMPIONS

Digital companies gain unbeatable advantages in knowledge, budgets and mindset. Over time, they grow so big, that they utilize those advantages to move into traditional industries and capture a substantial part of the value. They understand the customer and manage the customer interface - forcing manufacturing companies into the role of contract manufacturer. They excel in building ecosystems that satisfy the growing customer demand for solutions instead of products:

TURBULENT TIMES

The globally spreading nationalism is leading to a new era of de-globalization, with global trade wars and increasing protectionism. The liberal world order is replaced by a conflict-laden multipolar order with less international solidarity. The world is getting more and more crisis-ridden. Fake News, the irresponsible spread of digital technologies and rapid automation serve as amplifiers for existing and new social problems.

CHINESE DREAM

China becomes the center of global gravity: By 2040, the country is the first self-proclaimed eco-civilization and back to the dominant role in global affairs that it held for most of history ‒ leading the world on cultural, political, economic, military and environmental protection issues. China’s long-term strategic plan “Made in China 2025” is a success: More and more Chinese companies are leaders in key technologies in the world market.